LEPPYRD TRACKS Page 1 · The Map NQ · Thu 06 Aug 2026 · 15:40 ET

Where can NQ actually get to today?

Every level priced by how far away it is — not by what it’s called. Set at 15:40 ET, during the session. The wider the bar, the more often price gets there.
Price now
29,510
Typical day
738 pts
6-in-10 target box
29,362 – 29,657
29,58380%NEAR BANDtagged almost every day29,43680%29,65746%EXPECTEDwhere days usually end up29,36246%29,76821%COIN FLIPouter edge of the target box29,25121%29,8789%STRETCHneeds the morning29,1419%30,0634%LONG SHOTneeds a runner28,9564%30,2471%OUTLIERtrend day only28,7721%29,510PRICE NOWPRIOR DAY HIGH✓ SETTLEMENT
also on the rail: Prior Day Mid 29,802  ·  Midnight Open 29,565 ✓  ·  12H Mid 29,558 ✓  ·  Prior Day Low 29,531 ✓

Where today already sits — measured from the 18:00 open, 643 sessions

Today's high
29,686
0.16 ATR · 18th pct
Today's low
29,241
0.45 ATR · 54th pct
Range so far
445 pts
IN STAT
0.60 ATR · 12th pct
Under the 1.25 ATR line — fading a swept extreme is still live today.
pulls price repels price scenery — no pull
We price the distance, not the name. leppyrdtracks.com
20 yrs · walk-forward · not advice
LEPPYRD TRACKS Page 2 · The Playbook NQ · Thu 06 Aug 2026

What is still in play?

Everyone draws the same levels. Almost none of them do anything, and half are already answered before the bell. These are the ones that are not.
30,074TAKE PROFIT UNDER
Prior Day High
reached LESS than its distance predicts
564 pts away — in play
1% chance it tags in RTH
29,802DISTANCE ONLY
Prior Day Mid
the reversion target when a day turns
293 pts away — in play
9% chance it tags in RTH
Already answered overnight: Settlement 29,668 — rejected  ·  Midnight Open 29,565 — still through  ·  12H Mid 29,558 — still through  ·  Prior Day Low 29,531 — still through

09:45 checkpoint — ✓ resolved

Price was +123 pts (0.17 ATR) ABOVE the 9:30 open of 29,335 at 09:45.
71% closes ABOVE the 9:30 open  ·  base 52%  ·  n=523

What today’s setup says next — 65 matching days, 10 conditions

Breaks yesterday's high6%base 57%-51
Day closes green22%base 55%-33
Range expands vs yesterday69%base 49%+20
Closes in the top third26%base 45%-19
Closes in the bottom third40%base 29%+11
Outside day - takes both extremes6%base 13%-7
9:30-4:00 closes green52%base 54%-1
Only questions still open. Every number carries the base rate it is beating, because a % means nothing without one.
77%
One end of the day is in by 10:30
But both ends only 4% of the time. After the first hour you can usually treat one side as fixed — just don’t assume the range is finished. And the low goes in before the high at every checkpoint, all day. 5,145 sessions, 2006–2026.
922 pts
Stop fading past this much range
Once today’s high-minus-low clears it, swept highs and lows keep going instead of reversing — 8 times out of 8 in testing. Mark it the moment the first hour sets a boundary.
Yesterday4 / 4 correct · Wed 05 Aug · session ran 29,593 – 30,074we post the map, then we post the grade
These are odds price TOUCHES a number — not odds you make money. Price can tag your level right after stopping you out. This tells you where it can get to and what is worth aiming at. Which way to take the trade is still your call.
Post the map. Post the grade. Every day. leppyrdtracks.com
Nobody else marks their own homework · not advice