rangeProb-TracksPage 1 · The MapNQ · Wed 23 Sep 2026 · 08:51 ET
Where can NQ actually get to today?
Every level priced by how far away it is — not by what it’s called.
Set at 08:51 ET, before the bell. The wider the bar, the more often price gets there.
How to read the ladder2:58 · watch
Price now
30,959
Typical day
462 pts
6-in-10 target box
30,797 – 31,121
also on the rail: 12H Mid 31,039 ✓ · Midnight Open 31,012 ✓ · Prior Day Mid 30,868 · Prior Day Low 30,670
Where today already sits — measured from the 18:00 open, 642 sessions
Today's high
31,095
0.19 ATR · 22th pct
Today's low
30,911
0.21 ATR · 28th pct
Range so far
184 pts
IN STAT
0.40 ATR · 3th pct
Under the 1.25 ATR line — fading a swept extreme is still live today.
pulls price repels price scenery — no pull
We price the distance, not the name.leppyrdtracks.com 20 yrs · walk-forward · not advice
rangeProb-TracksPage 2 · The PlaybookNQ · Wed 23 Sep 2026
What is still in play?
Everyone draws the same levels. Almost none of them do anything, and half are
already answered before the bell. These are the ones that are not.
31,012SCENERY
Midnight Open
close to price - no pull of its own
✓ tagged 18:01 · ran 102 pts pastSTILL THROUGH · price -53 · 76% to tag again in RTH
30,868DISTANCE ONLY
Prior Day Mid
the reversion target when a day turns
76% chance it tags in RTH
30,670DISTANCE ONLY
Prior Day Low
yesterday's floor
289 pts away — in play
26% chance it tags in RTH
Already answered overnight: Prior Day High 31,066 — rejected · 12H Mid 31,039 — rejected · Settlement 31,016 — still through
09:45 checkpoint — pending
Where price sits against the 9:30 open at 09:45 has called the day’s close 72% of the time. 3,831 sessions, six markets.
more than 0.20 ATR above → 80%0.10 to 0.20 → 71%0.05 to 0.10 → 67%under 0.05 → 59%
Below the open, the mirror. Check it at 09:45.
What today’s setup says next — 446 matching days, 6 conditions
Breaks yesterday's low27%base 44%-17
Today's range ends wider than yesterday's42%base 49%-7
Returns to the midnight open72%base 69%+3
Closes in the bottom third26%base 29%-3
Outside day - takes both extremes12%base 13%-1
9:30-4:00 closes green54%base 54%+0
Day closes green54%base 55%-0
Closes in the top third46%base 45%+0
Only questions still open. Every number carries the base rate it is beating, because a % means nothing without one.
77%
One end of the day is in by 10:30
But both ends only 4% of the time. After the first hour you can usually treat one
side as fixed — just don’t assume the range is finished. And the low goes in before the high
at every checkpoint, all day. 5,145 sessions, 2006–2026.
578 pts
Stop fading past this much range
Once today’s high-minus-low clears it, swept highs and lows
keep going instead of reversing — 8 times out of 8 in testing.
Mark it the moment the first hour sets a boundary.
These are odds price TOUCHES a number — not odds you make money.
Price can tag your level right after stopping you out. This tells you where it can get to and what is
worth aiming at. Which way to take the trade is still your call.
Post the map. Post the grade. Every day.leppyrdtracks.com Nobody else marks their own homework · not advice