rangeProb-TracksPage 1 · The MapES · Fri 06 Nov 2026 · 08:48 ET
Where can ES actually get to today?
Every level priced by how far away it is — not by what it’s called.
Set at 08:48 ET, before the bell. The wider the bar, the more often price gets there.
How to read the ladder2:58 · watch
Price now
7,395
Typical day
83 pts
6-in-10 target box
7,366 – 7,424
also on the rail: Midnight Open 7,390 ✓ · 12H Mid 7,375 ✓ · Prior Day Low 7,346 ✓
Where today already sits — measured from the 18:00 open, 662 sessions
Today's high
7,427
-3.75 ATR · 0th pct
Today's low
7,322
5.02 ATR · 100th pct
Range so far
105 pts
OUT OF STAT
1.27 ATR · 69th pct
Past the 1.25 ATR line — swept extremes tend to RUN, not reverse. Stop fading.
pulls price repels price scenery — no pull
PRIOR DAY HIGH 7,739 is 344 pts away — off the ladder entirely · PRIOR DAY MID 7,542 is 147 pts away — off the ladder entirely
We price the distance, not the name.leppyrdtracks.com 20 yrs · walk-forward · not advice
rangeProb-TracksPage 2 · The PlaybookES · Fri 06 Nov 2026
What is still in play?
Everyone draws the same levels. Almost none of them do anything, and half are
already answered before the bell. These are the ones that are not.
7,739TAKE PROFIT UNDER
Prior Day High
reached LESS than its distance predicts
344 pts away — off the ladder
2% chance it tags in RTH
7,542DISTANCE ONLY
Prior Day Mid
the reversion target when a day turns
147 pts away — off the ladder
2% chance it tags in RTH
7,390SCENERY
Midnight Open
close to price - no pull of its own
✓ tagged 19:28 · ran 37 pts pastSTILL THROUGH · price +5 · 89% to tag again in RTH
Already answered overnight: Settlement 7,383 — still through · 12H Mid 7,375 — still through · Prior Day Low 7,346 — reclaimed
09:45 checkpoint — pending
Where price sits against the 9:30 open at 09:45 has called the day’s close 72% of the time. 3,831 sessions, six markets.
more than 0.20 ATR above → 80%0.10 to 0.20 → 71%0.05 to 0.10 → 67%under 0.05 → 59%
Below the open, the mirror. Check it at 09:45.
What today’s setup says next — 595 matching days, 6 conditions
Breaks yesterday's high48%base 57%-9
Returns to the midnight open72%base 66%+6
Today's range ends wider than yesterday's46%base 50%-5
9:30-4:00 closes green56%base 54%+1
Day closes green54%base 55%-1
Outside day - takes both extremes11%base 12%-1
Closes in the bottom third29%base 28%+1
Closes in the top third45%base 46%-0
Only questions still open. Every number carries the base rate it is beating, because a % means nothing without one.
77%
One end of the day is in by 10:30
But both ends only 4% of the time. After the first hour you can usually treat one
side as fixed — just don’t assume the range is finished. And the low goes in before the high
at every checkpoint, all day. 5,145 sessions, 2006–2026.
103 pts
Stop fading past this much range
Once today’s high-minus-low clears it, swept highs and lows
keep going instead of reversing — 8 times out of 8 in testing.
Mark it the moment the first hour sets a boundary.
These are odds price TOUCHES a number — not odds you make money.
Price can tag your level right after stopping you out. This tells you where it can get to and what is
worth aiming at. Which way to take the trade is still your call.
Post the map. Post the grade. Every day.leppyrdtracks.com Nobody else marks their own homework · not advice