rangeProb-TracksPage 1 · The MapES · Wed 23 Sep 2026 · 08:51 ET
Where can ES actually get to today?
Every level priced by how far away it is — not by what it’s called.
Set at 08:51 ET, before the bell. The wider the bar, the more often price gets there.
How to read the ladder2:58 · watch
Price now
7,822
Typical day
72 pts
6-in-10 target box
7,796 – 7,847
also on the rail: Midnight Open 7,836 ✓ · 12H Mid 7,835 ✓ · Prior Day Mid 7,830 ✓ · Prior Day Low 7,810
Where today already sits — measured from the 18:00 open, 640 sessions
Today's high
7,843
0.18 ATR · 21th pct
Today's low
7,819
0.16 ATR · 22th pct
Range so far
24 pts
IN STAT
0.34 ATR · 2th pct
Under the 1.25 ATR line — fading a swept extreme is still live today.
pulls price repels price scenery — no pull
We price the distance, not the name.leppyrdtracks.com 20 yrs · walk-forward · not advice
rangeProb-TracksPage 2 · The PlaybookES · Wed 23 Sep 2026
What is still in play?
Everyone draws the same levels. Almost none of them do anything, and half are
already answered before the bell. These are the ones that are not.
7,848TAKE PROFIT UNDER
Prior Day High
reached LESS than its distance predicts
27 pts away — in play
40% chance it tags in RTH
7,836SCENERY
Midnight Open
close to price - no pull of its own
✓ tagged 23:26 · ran 8 pts pastREJECTED · price -13 · 73% to tag again in RTH
7,810DISTANCE ONLY
Prior Day Low
yesterday's floor
73% chance it tags in RTH
Already answered overnight: 12H Mid 7,835 — rejected · Settlement 7,832 — still through · Prior Day Mid 7,830 — still through
09:45 checkpoint — pending
Where price sits against the 9:30 open at 09:45 has called the day’s close 72% of the time. 3,831 sessions, six markets.
more than 0.20 ATR above → 80%0.10 to 0.20 → 71%0.05 to 0.10 → 67%under 0.05 → 59%
Below the open, the mirror. Check it at 09:45.
What today’s setup says next — 426 matching days, 7 conditions
Breaks yesterday's low35%base 44%-9
Returns to the midnight open72%base 66%+6
Today's range ends wider than yesterday's45%base 50%-5
Day closes green52%base 55%-3
Breaks yesterday's high59%base 57%+2
Closes in the top third44%base 46%-2
Closes in the bottom third30%base 28%+2
9:30-4:00 closes green54%base 54%-0
Only questions still open. Every number carries the base rate it is beating, because a % means nothing without one.
77%
One end of the day is in by 10:30
But both ends only 4% of the time. After the first hour you can usually treat one
side as fixed — just don’t assume the range is finished. And the low goes in before the high
at every checkpoint, all day. 5,145 sessions, 2006–2026.
91 pts
Stop fading past this much range
Once today’s high-minus-low clears it, swept highs and lows
keep going instead of reversing — 8 times out of 8 in testing.
Mark it the moment the first hour sets a boundary.
These are odds price TOUCHES a number — not odds you make money.
Price can tag your level right after stopping you out. This tells you where it can get to and what is
worth aiming at. Which way to take the trade is still your call.
Post the map. Post the grade. Every day.leppyrdtracks.com Nobody else marks their own homework · not advice