rangeProb-TracksPage 1 · The MapYM · Wed 23 Sep 2026 · 08:51 ET
Where can YM actually get to today?
Every level priced by how far away it is — not by what it’s called.
Set at 08:51 ET, before the bell. The wider the bar, the more often price gets there.
How to read the ladder2:58 · watch
Price now
52,109
Typical day
634 pts
6-in-10 target box
51,887 – 52,331
also on the rail: Prior Day Mid 52,484 · Midnight Open 52,350 ✓ · 12H Mid 52,306 ✓ · Prior Day Low 52,125 ✓
Where today already sits — measured from the 18:00 open, 642 sessions
Today's high
52,371
0.18 ATR · 23th pct
Today's low
52,096
0.25 ATR · 30th pct
Range so far
275 pts
IN STAT
0.43 ATR · 3th pct
Under the 1.25 ATR line — fading a swept extreme is still live today.
pulls price repels price scenery — no pull
PRIOR DAY HIGH 52,844 is 735 pts away — off the ladder entirely
We price the distance, not the name.leppyrdtracks.com 20 yrs · walk-forward · not advice
rangeProb-TracksPage 2 · The PlaybookYM · Wed 23 Sep 2026
What is still in play?
Everyone draws the same levels. Almost none of them do anything, and half are
already answered before the bell. These are the ones that are not.
52,844TAKE PROFIT UNDER
Prior Day High
reached LESS than its distance predicts
735 pts away — off the ladder
6% chance it tags in RTH
52,484DISTANCE ONLY
Prior Day Mid
the reversion target when a day turns
376 pts away — in play
25% chance it tags in RTH
52,350SCENERY
Midnight Open
close to price - no pull of its own
241 pts away — in play
✓ tagged 23:42 · ran 21 pts pastREJECTED · price -241 · 41% to tag again in RTH
Already answered overnight: 12H Mid 52,306 — rejected · Settlement 52,268 — still through · Prior Day Low 52,125 — still through
09:45 checkpoint — pending
Where price sits against the 9:30 open at 09:45 has called the day’s close 72% of the time. 3,831 sessions, six markets.
more than 0.20 ATR above → 80%0.10 to 0.20 → 71%0.05 to 0.10 → 67%under 0.05 → 59%
Below the open, the mirror. Check it at 09:45.
What today’s setup says next — 404 matching days, 7 conditions
Breaks yesterday's high25%base 54%-29
Day closes green33%base 54%-21
Closes in the top third37%base 44%-7
Closes in the bottom third34%base 29%+5
Returns to the midnight open62%base 66%-4
Outside day - takes both extremes8%base 12%-4
9:30-4:00 closes green57%base 53%+4
Today's range ends wider than yesterday's51%base 49%+2
Only questions still open. Every number carries the base rate it is beating, because a % means nothing without one.
77%
One end of the day is in by 10:30
But both ends only 4% of the time. After the first hour you can usually treat one
side as fixed — just don’t assume the range is finished. And the low goes in before the high
at every checkpoint, all day. 5,145 sessions, 2006–2026.
793 pts
Stop fading past this much range
Once today’s high-minus-low clears it, swept highs and lows
keep going instead of reversing — 8 times out of 8 in testing.
Mark it the moment the first hour sets a boundary.
These are odds price TOUCHES a number — not odds you make money.
Price can tag your level right after stopping you out. This tells you where it can get to and what is
worth aiming at. Which way to take the trade is still your call.
Post the map. Post the grade. Every day.leppyrdtracks.com Nobody else marks their own homework · not advice