rangeProb-TracksPage 1 · The MapYM · Fri 06 Nov 2026 · 08:48 ET
Where can YM actually get to today?
Every level priced by how far away it is — not by what it’s called.
Set at 08:48 ET, before the bell. The wider the bar, the more often price gets there.
How to read the ladder2:58 · watch
Price now
51,123
Typical day
723 pts
6-in-10 target box
50,870 – 51,376
also on the rail: Prior Day Low 51,300 ✓ · 12H Mid 51,230 ✓ · Midnight Open 51,170 ✓
Where today already sits — measured from the 18:00 open, 665 sessions
Today's high
51,569
0.28 ATR · 34th pct
Today's low
50,891
0.66 ATR · 68th pct
Range so far
678 pts
IN STAT
0.94 ATR · 45th pct
Under the 1.25 ATR line — fading a swept extreme is still live today.
pulls price repels price scenery — no pull
PRIOR DAY HIGH 53,913 is 2,790 pts away — off the ladder entirely · PRIOR DAY MID 52,606 is 1,484 pts away — off the ladder entirely
We price the distance, not the name.leppyrdtracks.com 20 yrs · walk-forward · not advice
rangeProb-TracksPage 2 · The PlaybookYM · Fri 06 Nov 2026
What is still in play?
Everyone draws the same levels. Almost none of them do anything, and half are
already answered before the bell. These are the ones that are not.
53,913TAKE PROFIT UNDER
Prior Day High
reached LESS than its distance predicts
2,790 pts away — off the ladder
1% chance it tags in RTH
52,606DISTANCE ONLY
Prior Day Mid
the reversion target when a day turns
1,484 pts away — off the ladder
1% chance it tags in RTH
51,626WORTH WEIGHTING
Settlement
the only level that beats its distance
503 pts away — in play
25% chance it tags in RTH
51,170SCENERY
Midnight Open
close to price - no pull of its own
✓ tagged 22:42 · ran 279 pts pastSTILL THROUGH · price -47 · 91% to tag again in RTH
Already answered overnight: Prior Day Low 51,300 — still through · 12H Mid 51,230 — still through
09:45 checkpoint — pending
Where price sits against the 9:30 open at 09:45 has called the day’s close 72% of the time. 3,831 sessions, six markets.
more than 0.20 ATR above → 80%0.10 to 0.20 → 71%0.05 to 0.10 → 67%under 0.05 → 59%
Below the open, the mirror. Check it at 09:45.
What today’s setup says next — 550 matching days, 5 conditions
Breaks yesterday's high22%base 54%-32
Day closes green33%base 54%-22
Closes in the top third36%base 44%-7
Outside day - takes both extremes7%base 12%-5
Closes in the bottom third34%base 29%+5
Returns to the midnight open63%base 66%-3
Today's range ends wider than yesterday's52%base 49%+3
9:30-4:00 closes green56%base 53%+3
Only questions still open. Every number carries the base rate it is beating, because a % means nothing without one.
77%
One end of the day is in by 10:30
But both ends only 4% of the time. After the first hour you can usually treat one
side as fixed — just don’t assume the range is finished. And the low goes in before the high
at every checkpoint, all day. 5,145 sessions, 2006–2026.
904 pts
Stop fading past this much range
Once today’s high-minus-low clears it, swept highs and lows
keep going instead of reversing — 8 times out of 8 in testing.
Mark it the moment the first hour sets a boundary.
These are odds price TOUCHES a number — not odds you make money.
Price can tag your level right after stopping you out. This tells you where it can get to and what is
worth aiming at. Which way to take the trade is still your call.
Post the map. Post the grade. Every day.leppyrdtracks.com Nobody else marks their own homework · not advice