Click what has already happened today. Every outcome scored against the days that looked the same.
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How to use this page2:41 · watch
Conditions
what has happened so far
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What usually happens next
sorted by distance from the base rate
Outcome
Today?How often this happened on the days matching your
conditions.
vs base
Base?How often it happens on all days. Without this, a
percentage tells you nothing.
Delta?Today minus base. The only part your conditions caused.
Negative is just as useful as positive.
95% CI?The honest width of the answer. Wide means the
sample is small and the true rate could be anywhere in there.
n?Matching days behind the number. Under 60 we grey the row and
flag it THIN.
Eras?Five squares, five slices of history. Green = the effect held
in that era. A pattern that only worked once shows amber.
What it actually pays
hit rate is not money: this is the difference
STOPTARGET
When does the extreme print?
same conditions, seven windows across the session day
the day’s HIGH
the day’s LOW
leppyrdtracks.com
Every number carries its base rate, its sample and its era test. A 74% that happens 74% of the
time is worth more than a 90% that happens 60% of the time.
Odds that price touches a level, not odds you make money. Not advice.