rangeProb-TracksPage 1 · The MapCL · Wed 23 Sep 2026 · 08:51 ET
Where can CL actually get to today?
Every level priced by how far away it is — not by what it’s called.
Set at 08:51 ET, before the bell. The wider the bar, the more often price gets there.
How to read the ladder2:58 · watch
Price now
91
Typical day
5 pts
6-in-10 target box
89 – 93
also on the rail: Prior Day Mid 91 · 12H Mid 90 ✓ · Midnight Open 89 ✓ · Prior Day Low 89
Where today already sits — measured from the 18:00 open, 641 sessions
Today's high
91
0.25 ATR · 32th pct
Today's low
89
0.24 ATR · 27th pct
Range so far
2 pts
IN STAT
0.49 ATR · 3th pct
Under the 1.25 ATR line — fading a swept extreme is still live today.
pulls price repels price scenery — no pull
We price the distance, not the name.leppyrdtracks.com 20 yrs · walk-forward · not advice
rangeProb-TracksPage 2 · The PlaybookCL · Wed 23 Sep 2026
What is still in play?
Everyone draws the same levels. Almost none of them do anything, and half are
already answered before the bell. These are the ones that are not.
94TAKE PROFIT UNDER
Prior Day High
reached LESS than its distance predicts
3 pts away — in play
20% chance it tags in RTH
91DISTANCE ONLY
Prior Day Mid
the reversion target when a day turns
90% chance it tags in RTH
89SCENERY
Midnight Open
close to price - no pull of its own
2 pts away — in play
✓ tagged 23:38 · ran 1 pts pastRECLAIMED · price +1 · 36% to tag again in RTH
Where price sits against the 9:30 open at 09:45 has called the day’s close 72% of the time. 3,831 sessions, six markets.
more than 0.20 ATR above → 80%0.10 to 0.20 → 71%0.05 to 0.10 → 67%under 0.05 → 59%
Below the open, the mirror. Check it at 09:45.
What today’s setup says next — 438 matching days, 7 conditions
Day closes green76%base 51%+26
Breaks yesterday's low27%base 46%-19
Closes in the bottom third20%base 33%-13
Closes in the top third50%base 39%+11
Breaks yesterday's high57%base 50%+7
Returns to the midnight open51%base 56%-5
9:30-4:00 closes green55%base 51%+4
Today's range ends wider than yesterday's50%base 47%+3
Only questions still open. Every number carries the base rate it is beating, because a % means nothing without one.
77%
One end of the day is in by 10:30
But both ends only 4% of the time. After the first hour you can usually treat one
side as fixed — just don’t assume the range is finished. And the low goes in before the high
at every checkpoint, all day. 5,145 sessions, 2006–2026.
6 pts
Stop fading past this much range
Once today’s high-minus-low clears it, swept highs and lows
keep going instead of reversing — 8 times out of 8 in testing.
Mark it the moment the first hour sets a boundary.
These are odds price TOUCHES a number — not odds you make money.
Price can tag your level right after stopping you out. This tells you where it can get to and what is
worth aiming at. Which way to take the trade is still your call.
Post the map. Post the grade. Every day.leppyrdtracks.com Nobody else marks their own homework · not advice