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rangeProb-Tracks
Page 1 · The map
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · priced 07:00 ET

Where can AAL get to this month?

Each rung is a level that far from here, and how often price has touched it before the month is out — from 243 months of history, read at this stage of the month (1,620 day-by-day readings), priced from where it sits now. It stays inside 11.51 – 14.85 more than half the time.
Price now
13.18
Typical month range
3.3360 pts
Where we are
early in the month
14.0162%LIKELYreached on most months12.3562%14.8536%STRETCHneeds a real move11.5136%15.6819%LONG SHOTneeds a runner10.6819%16.5210%LONG SHOTneeds a runner9.844010%18.181%OUTLIERrare8.17601%19.850%OUTLIERrare6.50800%13.18PRICE NOW✓ LAST MONTH HIGHLAST MONTH LOWMIDPOINTSETTLEMENT
likelyeven-isha stretch
where it can go, priced from history
leppyrdtracks.com · Month roadmap
rangeProb-Tracks
Page 2 · The playbook
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · priced 07:00 ET

What’s still in play?

The named levels from last month, how far each is, and the odds price tags it before this month closes — then what the month usually does from here, and today’s lean.
13.44KEY LINE
Last Month High
last month’s high — the breakout line
✓ already tagged this month62% to tag again before it closes
12.60REFERENCE
Settlement
last month’s close — the reference
62% chance it tags before the month closes
12.53REVERSION TARGET
Midpoint
last month’s middle — the reversion target
62% chance it tags before the month closes
11.63KEY LINE
Last Month Low
last month’s low — the floor
1.5500 pts away
36% chance it tags before the month closes

What this month usually does next — from 243 past months

Breaks last month’s high and keeps going59%n=34+9
Or pokes the high and slips back under36%n=36-14
Takes out last month’s high50%base 50%+0
Takes out last month’s low48%base 50%-2
Closes the month green49%base 50%-1
Bigger range than last month51%base 50%+1
Each number is how often it happened, next to how far it is from a coin flip. Touch odds, not money odds.

This month’s lean — ↓ leaning down

Leaning down — it poked last month’s high (13.44) and fell back under. Those only keep going up 36% of the time, so it tends to fade. Price is now inside last month’s range, 0.26 pts under its high (13.44) and 1.55 pts over its low (11.63).
read the level, then the lean
INSIDE last month’s range · Month roadmap · leppyrdtracks.com